Break Point

Due to some objective matters I have to take care for the remainder of this week there will be no picks until August 1st. Good luck with your bets!

ATP Gstaad, Round 1

Atlanta tournament is now already forgotten. The three ATP tournaments
this week throw a shadow of history over so recent past. There is not much to be said about the final game. I really thought that Isner had the game in the hand in the first set, and with a 5-1 lead in the second set's tiebreak, I almost thought that my predictions will come true so beautyfuly. Well, the turn of events proved how I can be wrong and
has thrown me back to humility and more study on the games to come.
Since LA games are yet to be played until later tonight, I thought of looking into some games from Gstaad, Round 1. We already have some settled results, the games I will provide picks from will be tomorrow.

Julien Benneteau (#111) takes on Lukas Rosol for the second time this year. In their only meeting, Rosol won in three sets. Recent result reccomend Rosol as the favorite for this game,even after his recent shoulder injury in June. He came back and won the Braunschweig Challenger. His performance on clay is very good this year, 25W/10L, while Benneteau is standing even, 9W/9L.

(Victor Hanescu)

1. Lukas Rosol to win @1.53 (3/5)
2. Guillermo Garcia-Lopez to win @2.10 (2/5)
3. Victor Hanescu to win @2.20 (2/5)

I also think of the following combo:
1. Pablo Andujar to win @1.22
2. Marcel Granollers to win @1.36
Odds: 1.66 (2/5)

ATP Los Angeles, Round 1

ATP Los Angeles, known as "Farmers Classic" begins tomorrow and will be my
main focus for picks in the blog articles. I will try to select games to bet on from the other two ATP tournaments, Gstaad and Umag.
This year the tournament will be hosting players such as Mardy Fish - he is playing the final in Atlanta as I am writing this article -, Juan Martin Del Potro, Marcos Baghdatis or "rising star" Bulgarian Grigor Dimitrov.
Fernando Gonzalez, former world #5, currently #296 takes on Rusian Igor Kunitsyn (#61 ) and seeded 8 here in Los Angeles. Gonzalez comes after a hip injury in 2010 that kept him away from the tennis court for several months. I see value in laying Gonzalez, whom is considered favorite by the bookies for he might not be playing to the best of his ability
because of recent history injuries.

(Grigor Dimitrov)

Round 1 will be tomorrow, July 25th, and my selections are set below.

1. Grigor Dimitrov to win @1.66 (3/5)
2. Xavier Malisse to win @1.53 (3/5)
3. Dmitry Tursunov to win @1.50
4. Igor Kunitsyn to win @2.37

ATP Atlanta Final

I have been away for a day from this blog and I could not post picks or bets on the games semifinals in Hamburg and Atlanta. I am back today for my view of the Atlanta final round.

Mardy Fish (#9) and John Isner(#35) are facing once again in the final round in Atlanta, where Fish won in a thrilling game last year, after coming back and winning the title in the third set, after tie break. It is obvious that this game is open to any result, and victory of one or the other player will be decided by small factors.
John Isner has built a lot of confidence this year, now standig atop 8 consecutive victories, which won him the Newport title and also brought him to the final in Atlanta, while Fish has had a great year, coming after a quarter final appearance at Wimbledon, where he lost to Rafael Nadal in 4 sets.
Head to head, there are 2 victories for Mardy Fish and only one for John Isner. What is interesting, all three games ended after three sets, two of them at tie break.

Playing alternatives for today, I will be picking one of these to play. Please share with me your suggestions if you have any.

1. John Isner to win first set @2.25 ( 2/5 ) - bet365.
2. Under 23.5 games @ 2.00 (2/5) - bet365.
3. Tie break in game @1.57 (2/5) - bet365.
4. Over 9.5 games first set @1.44 (2/5) - bet365.
5. John Isner to win @2.50 (2/5) - bet365.

ATP Atlanta Quarterfinals

Yesterday, the two picks from Atlanta turned out to be 1 incorrect and 1 correct. Xavier Malisse was defeated by Ryan Harrison, whom plays in the quarter finals today against Rajeev Ram whom upset Lleyton Hewitt in 3 sets. Ryan Harrison has had a promising year so far, having 5 wins over opponents ranked in top 50, giving him great trust for the games to come. Both Harrison and Ram are in their second career quarterfinal and a tough game is to be expected.
Mardy Fish, the defending champion, takes on Indian Somdev Devvarman. Fish is in great shape, dismissing Mahut in two sets, 6:3, 6:3 and his results this year compared to Devvarman's are self speaking.

(Mardy Fish)

1. Mardy Fish - Somdev Devvarman, under 21.5 games @1.72 (4/5) - paddypower
2. Ryan Harrison to win @ 1.38 ( 3/5) - bet365
3. John Isner - Lu Yen-Hsun over 21.5 games @1.66 (2/5) - bet365
4. Gilles Muller to win @2.75 (2/5) - bet365

Hamburg Quarterfinals

The time is passing quickly and we are now in the quarterfinals. Yesterday,
Cilic managed to come back and win the game with Tobias Kamke, while Kohlschreiber lost to Almagro. I think that today Cilic will face a much better opponent in Mikhail Youzhny and I don't think it will be enough to just wake up in the middle of the game and win with yet another comeback. Youzhny is a very determined player and Cilic is not Reister you might argue, however, I think his ambition will pay off against a letargic Cilic.
In the head to head stats, Youzhny leads 4 to 1, but mist importantly, I think that unless Cilic does something out of the ordinary, the Russian will advance to the next round. In the next game of the quarterfinals, Gael Monfils (#7) is favorite against Frenchman Gilles Simon.
The only confrontation between the two dates back in 2009, at the Australian Open where
Simon claimed victory in 3 sets. However, Monfils feels good on clay, this year advancing to the quarter finals of Roland Garros, where he lost to Roger Federer. Monfils is a surprising player, and he can loos to anybody ( see the last game with Hanescu ), or he can have a great day and win against anybody. There is a certain risk in backing Monfils here, but betting is not an exact science and after all its all about feeling.

Here are my picks of the day:

1. Mikhail Youzhny to win @1.50 (4/5)
2. Gael Monfils to win @1.53 (3/5)
3. Nicolas Almagro to win first set @1.44 (3/5)
4. Jurgen Melzer to win @2.20

ATP Atlanta, Round 2

There are four more games in Round 2, Atlanta today, and I have settled
on the one between Xavier Malisse (#40) and young American Ryan Harrison (#120).
The head-to-head is in favor of Malisse, with one victory to nil.
Malisse comes after a good stand in Wimbledon, while Harrison was not so convincing in his endeavors, his most noteworthy performance in the last couple of month being that he took two sets from David Ferrer at Wimbledon.
In my view, Malisse should be the winner between the two.

1. Xavier Malisse to win @1.57. (4/5)
2. Mardy Fish to win 2-0 @1.40 ( 3/5)

ATP Hamburg, Round 3

The surprising Kinttel made it hard for Cilic to advance to the next round,
but eventually the Croatian made it and will now face German Tobias Kamke,
whom had two solid games here in Hamburg, beating Pere Riba and Juan Ignacio Chela. I think the Cilic must raise his level in order to win today, and I have no doubt he is capable of doing that, however, in my view, there is a decent probability that he will be beaten.
Russian Mikhail Youzhny (#17) takes on German Julian Reister (#155). Reister has beaten Guillermo Garcia-Lopez, a much better ranked player, however, I think Youzhny should prevail, and I will go for a win in the first set.

(Mikhail Youzhny)

The picks for this round (ww.bet365.com):

1. Tobias Kamke to win @2.10 (3/5)
2. Mikhail Youzhny to win first set @1.40 (3/5)
3. Philipp Kohlschreiber to win @2.10 (2/5)
4. Florian Mayer to win @1.72 (2/5)

ATP Atlanta Round 2

Yesterday my feeling that Haas would eventually loose was inspired and I feel encouraged to take on these pick from the second round.
Kevin Anderson (#34) takes on Michael Russell (#102). The head to head status is 3 to 1 for Anderson, with the most recent win in 3 sets at Indian Wells, in March. Anderson's record on hard court is very good this year, with a record of 16 W/ 7 L, while Russell has a 5 W /6 L.In my view, Anderson should win this game.
Another interesting game is the one between two fellow Americans, James Blake(#91) and John Isner(35).John Isner, the champion of Newport did not concede a set to win the Van Allen Cup. Isner has an impressive
serve, only this year serving 408 aces. Former world no. 4, James Blake, also comes after winning the Winnetka Challenger, but I don't believe the 33 old Blake will overcome Isner's challenge.

(John Isner)

The picks for Round 2 (www.bet365.com):

1.Kevin Anderson to win @1.44 (4/5)
2. John Isner to win @1.40 (4/5)
3. Marinko Matosevic to win @2.50 (2/5)
4. Giller Muller to win @1.57 (2/5)

ATP Hamburg Round 2

Today we are heading for round 2 in Hamburg, and I can't say we didn't have
a few surprises yesterday, but all in all, the picks I suggested turned out
to be profitable.
Radek Stepanek went past Andreas Beck, contrary to my prediction, even though it was not very easy for him, winning 7-5, 7-6. Today Stepanek takes on Italy's Adreas Seppi, whim he met twice so far and beaten. Their last encounter was in June 2011, in Prostejov, were Stepanek won 7:5, 6:4, and I envision a close match this time as well.
Another interesting game I think will be between Marin Cilic and Bastian Knittel. Knittel is a surprise so far, being an underdog and winning to games, one in the qualifying stage and one yesterday agains Ivan Dodig. Knittel has only one victory in an ATP main draw at Stuttgart, and I believe Cilic, in a normal day, should have no problem in advancing
to the quarter finals.

Here is a list of picks for today for Hamburg, Round 2 (bet365):

1. Radek Stepanek v Andreas Seppi, over 9.5 games first set @1.66 (3/5)
2. Jurgen Melzer to win @1.40 (4/5)
3. Marin Cilic to win 2-0 @1.61 (2/5)
4. Gael Monfils to win 2-0 @1.72 (2/5)
5. Cedrik-Marcel Stebe to win @2.25 (3/5)
6. Philipp Kohlschreiber to win @1.57 (4/5)

ATP Atlanta Round 1

The day has come to take on Atlanta. Over the years, Pete Sampras, Boris Becker and John McEnroe claimed the formerly RCA Championships, Indianapolis.
We have some interesting matches in the first round, and with a little bit of inspiration, they will be profitable.

(Tommy Haas, Wimbledon 2009)

An interesting match will be between Tommy Haas (#585) and Robby Ginepri (#369). They've met 5 times back in the day, their last meeting dating September 2006. Haas has won 4 and lost the other in a 5 set game at US Open in 2005. I personally hope that Haas, former world no. 2 will advance in the next stage because he is one of my favourite players, however, I think that his recent back injury at Newport, just a couple of weeks
ago will definitely have an impact on his performance. I fancy him as the better player, however, I think laying Haas would be profitable given the conditions. Here are a few picks I consider for Round 1:

1. Robby Ginepri to win @2.25 (2/5)
2. Grigor Dimitrov to win @1.40 (3/5)
3. Igor Kunitsyn to win @1.53 (3/5)
4. Lleyton Hewitt to win 2-0 @ 1.30 (3/5)

Good luck!

ATP Hamburg Round 1 (Day 2)

It's been a tough day for me and I could not post my picks for the ATP Hamburg Round 1 (Day 1) of this competition.
I came to a conclusion of my picks and I see a few games more balanced than the bookmakers consider. The one I think is open to a surprise is between Radek Stepanek and Andreas Beck and in my opinion the German does have a chance, even if Stepanek is the more experienced player, with some important victories in his carrer over higher ranked players. In my picks I am trying to count on victories of underdogs, since I think there is potential in these games for the favorites to loose.
In short, here are my picks (bookmaker bet 365):

1. Andreas Beck to win @2.37 (2/5)
2. Philipp Kohlschreiber to win 2-0 @1.61 (2/5)
3. Pablo Andujar to win @1.44 (4/5)
4. Juan Carlos Ferrero to win 2-0 @1.57 (4/5)
5. Daniel Gimeno-Traver to win @2.37 (2/5)
6. Marsel Ilhan to win @2.75 (2/5)
7. Juan Monaco to win @1.53 (4/5)

ATP Tournaments Next Week

We are stepping in a new week and have two ATP tournaments to cover in the pages of this blog.
First of them is ATP Hamburg (16-24 July), former event of the Master series, until 2009, now know as the Bet-At-Home Open, featuring players such as Gael Monfils (#7), Jurgen Melzer (#12), Nicolas Almagro (#14) and others from the top 100, promising interesting matches and a lot of action in this new event played on clay.
Since the year 2000, Roger Federer claimed 4 titles, in 2002, 2004, 2005 and 2007, but the last three years had Rafael Nadal (2008), Nikolay Davydenko (2009) and Andrey Golubev (2010)
claiming the Hamburg title.

The draws for the singles and doubles can be seen on this page:
http://bet-at-home-open.com/en/draws/

The second ATP Tour event is the Atlanta Tennis Championship (18-24 July), featuring players such as Mardy Fish (2010 winner), John Isner, Lleyton Hewitt, Kevin Anderson or Tommy Haas.

The main draw of the singles is here:
http://assets.usta.com/assets/669/15/MDS1.pdf

I think we have enough material to get through another week in tennis betting.
Good luck!

ATP Bastad Final

The day has come for the final game of the SkiStar Open, with basically the best ranked players in the tournament reaching the final stage. There is little to say about yestarday's semifinals, were both Soderling as well as Ferrer swept the floor with their opponents. Quite unexpected was the loss of focus from Nicolas Almagro, whom bearly won 3 games in the second set, and even worse, a Tomas Berdych whom managed to take a single game from an unleashed Soderling.
As a result, we have: Robin Soderling (#5) and David Ferrer (#6), each of them looking for a new title here in Bastad. Bookies consider Soderling favorite in this final, and there are some arguments to that. Soderling has an overall of 9 victories to 4 over Ferrer and strictly on clay, 3 wins to 2.
The advantage of Soderling is his very strong serve, which brought him no less than 351 aces this year (Ferrer only managed to serve 146 aces), however, statistically, both players seem to be in the same or close parameters. Furthermore, Ferrer has a better percentage on games won than Soderling on clay this year: 81% (22-5) as opposed to 75% (15-5).
I do believe we are going to have a balanced game this time, and I would not be surprised if it ended in 3 sets. The last encounter in Bastad, back in 2008, also ended in 3 sets, giving victory to Ferrer.
So, lets hope we see some high quality tennis from both players and here are my picks:

1. Over 9.5 games first set @1.57, 5 units, www.bet365.com
2. Over 2.5 sets @2.25, 2 units, www.bet365.com
3. Robin Soderling to win @1.61, 4 units, www.bet365.com

ATP Newport return of investment

Today I got to gather all the results of the picks posted on this blog on the ATP Newport tournament. I must say I am pleased with the result, the final return of invesment(ROI) being of 9.86%, with a total of 101 units invested and 112.05 returned.
I have created an Excel file with the results, and there is the screenshot below:

I have also generated the pie chart of the number of successful bets over the failed ones, giving me a final of 71% bets won.

ATP Bastad Semifinals

Here we are in the semifinals stage.
First semifinal is between Robin Soderling(5) and Tomas Berdych(8). The head to head record between the two players is 8-4 for Soderling, with the last game on clay won by the Swede at Roland Garros 2010 in 5 sets. We have two strong, solid players; their heights only differ by 1'', with 6'4'' for Soderling and 6'5'' for Berdych. This year's last experience on clay lasted longer for Soderling, who lost in the quarter finals to Rafael Nadal, while Tomas Berdych lost in the first round to Frenchman Stephane Robert (140).
Until now, both players faced two opponents and none of them conceded a set. I believe it will be a balanced game, but I also see Robin Soderling advancing to the finals, such as he did in 2009 (when he won the title) and 2010( when he was runner up to the other semifinalist, Nicolas Almagro).
I am thinking of these bets for this game:
- Over 9.5 games 1st set @1.66 ( www.paddypower.com )
- Robin Soderling to win @1.44 ( www.bet365.com )
- Under 22.5 games ( www.paddypower.com )

The second semifinal is that between two Spaniards Nicolas Almagro and David Ferrer, two former finalists, with Nicolas Almagro having won the 2010 title and David Ferrer the 2007 one. The match record between the two players shows 7-0 for Ferrer, with the last two games on clay this year, in the Acapulco final and Barcelonda semifinal stages. However, Nicolas Almagro has a very good record on clay this year, being surpassed only by Rafael Nadal. Even though given the record is hard not to see Ferrer as the big favorite, I would also say that there is value in backing Almagro, so we have:
- Over 21.5 @1.72 ( ( www.paddypower.com )
- Nicolas Almagro to win @3.40 ( www.bet365.com )

ATP Bastad Quarter Finals

Today we have two matches of the ATP Skistar Bastad quarterfinals that I want to talk about:
First is the one between Michael Ryderstedt (311) and Nicolas Almagro(14).This is one of Nicolas Almagro's favorite tournaments, where he reached the finals in 2007 and had won it in 2010, taking on Robin Soderling. Although it came as a surprise Michael's victory over favorite Ruben Ramirez Hidalgo, I think the surprises will end here and Nicolas Almagro will claim victory in two sets. Hence my tip for this game:

Nicolas Almagro to win 2-0 @1.28 ( www.bet365.com )

The second game has Andreas Haider-Maurer facing Spaniard David Ferrer. Andreas Haider-Maurer is ranked at the best of his career, no. 74 ATP and has won against Filippo Volandri as an underdog in two sets, last one in tie break. David Ferrer also had to win in tie-break in the second set against Pierre Riba.
I expect this game to end in two sets even though a three set games is not excluded if you want to take a shot, but I will settle on the following:

Over 19.5 games @1.90 (www.bet365.com)

Kavcic Blaz to Win

Today I have settled on the match between Kavcic Blaz and Juan Monaco, from round 2 at the ATP Bastad tournament. Taking a look at the form of the two players, where Juan Monaco is in a form decrease, having won only 50% of his games this year and Kavcic Blaz has a much better rate of 64% matches won, I think is of good value to take into account a victory of the 24 year old Slovenian. I am going against the general trend by not backing Juan Monaco, a much more experienced player, however, this is my feeling and I'd rather take a chance with these fine odds. So, long stroy short:
Kavcic Blaz to win @3.25 with bet365.com

ATP Bastad Round 2, July 14th

This week we will go to Sweden for the ATP Bastad tournament. By now we are in Round 2 and are looking forward some tougher matches in the quarter finals. Today's last game is that between Robin Soderling and Diego Junqueira. Soderling is once again first seed, same as last year when he was runner up to Nicolas Almagro, losing in 3 sets. He should be a clear favorite in this game, and I think the best odds for his victory are of 1.10. I have decide to combine some correct score games of "clear" favorites and got a combo of odds 1.84 at bet365:
1. Robin Soderling to win 2-0 @1.18
2. Nicolas Alagro to win 2-0 @1.25
3. David Ferrer to win 2-0 @1.25

I also suggest single bets:
1.Filippo Volandri to win @1.44
2.Ruben Ramirez Hidalgo to win @1.53.

Good luck to you all!

ATP Newport Final

All in all, I think I had good result with the betting on ATP Newport. I correctly predicted the results of the semifinals and, almost to perfect for the predictibility of this tournament, John Isner became the first first seed since 1976 to claim the Van Alen cup.
Altough I was on a short vacation and this post is a few days away, I just wanted to note here that I think I am on a good road with starting an ordered approach on betting and this is part of what this blog is about: keeping track of my progress and preventing me from drifting into choices I should not make and increase my return on investment.

ATP Newport Semifinals

So we now have both semifinals of the ATP Newport Tournament settled. The surprise of these semifinals is obviously Michael Yani, whom also was lucky to get past Haas after the German retired in the first set. I still believe in a Isner - Rochus final, and betting on their victories is one option. I would also look into victories in straigh sets:

1. John Isner to win @ 1.22
2. John Isner to win 2-0 @1.66
3. Olivier Rochus to win @ 1.20
4. Olivier Rochus to win 2-0 @1.57

Good luck with your bets.

First ATP Newport Semifinal

We have the first ATP Newport Semifinal which will be between John Isner and Tobias Kamke, as I have correctly suggested in my quarter finals post, and also with nice 2.0 odds on Kamke's victory over Roger-Vasselin.
If we take a look at the odds for the quarter between Michael Yani and Denis Kudla, we can see that the odds for a victory of Kudla are dropping, from 1.61 from the day when I made the selection to 1.57 today.
I am hoping for the best in the last two quarter finals games and I will be back with suggestions on the semifinals.

ATP Newport Quarter Finals

Picks for ATP Newport quarterfinal stage (bet365 odds):

Tobias Kamke to win @2.00
John Isner to win @1.20
Olivier Rochus to win @1.40
Denis Kudla to win @1.61

In my view, given the draw of this event, the final will be between John Isner and Olivier Rochus.
Good luck with your tennis picks today!

Dudi Sela to Win

Today I stopped at the match between Dudi Sela and Michael Yani. I though of this bet, bookmaker is bet365:

Dudi Sela to win 2-0 @1.53

Dudi Sela, ranked 82 takes on Michael Yani, ranked 361. In great shape, having won 3 Challengers in a row,
in the last two: Fergana, Uzbekistan - hard court - and Nottingham, Great Britain - grass - only conceding two sets, one per tournament. 
Michael Yani is yet to win his first ATP match in the main draw and there is also the question of his recent hamstring injury on May 2nd which kept him away until he returned on June 27th at Winnetka and losing to Devin Britton by retiring in second set at 3-0 for the American.

In my view, Sela should obtain victory but I go even further and I think he should not concede a set to Yani in this match.

ATP Newport

After Wimbledon, were Novak Djokovic became world number 1 for the first time ending the Federer-Nadal domination at least for a while, we head for the only tournament on grass held on the American continent, at Newport, Rhode Island. Players will be looking up to $442,500 in total prizes.
I have posted my betting suggestions in a previous post today, but I thought of adding a few words on who is playing and take a look at the schedule of play.
The drawing of men's singles and doubles can be found here: http://www.tennisfame.com/sites/default/files/X%281%29.pdf.
With the number 1 American and former Newport winner, Mardy Fish, engaged in the Davis Cup battle against Spain, John Isner is credited with the first chance to win the tournament this year. But we should also pay attention to Olivier Rochus, whom reached the semifinals in 2009 and the final in 2010. "Rising star" Grigor Dimitrov is through to second round and seeded no. 2 in this tournament. I will try to keep up with the events and offer timely picks covering most of them.

Picks of the day

Today I post my picks on ATP Newport tennis tournament. All bets are placed at http://bet365.com

1. Grigor Dimitrov to win 2-0 @ 1.50  
2. Ivo Karlovic to win 2-0 @ 1.36
3.  Michael Berrer to win 2-1 @ 5.00
4. Ryan Sweeting to win @1.80
5. Dustin Brown to win @ 2.10
6. Nicolas Mahut to win 2-0 @ 1.33
7. Olivier Rochus to win @ 1.25
8. Donald Young to win @ 1.53
9. Alex Bogomolov to win @ 1.53
10. Arnauld Clement to win @ 2.00
11. John Isner to win @ 1.30

Good luck with your bets today!