US Open, Round 1

US Open is finally here with lots of adrenalin and games we can bet on. For today I have settled on an interesting game that I think that has the potential to become a winner.

Marinko Matosevic (#148) vs Juan Ignacio Chela (#24).
Juan Ignacio Chela has had a poor performance this year on hard courts, winning only 2 of the 8 games played. He's coming from two consecutive loses in R64 phases: Montreal (lost to Vasek Pospisil - #143) and Cincinnati (lost to Ryan Harrison -#66). On the other hand, Matosevic has a record of 17W/13L in 2011 on hard courts, which is also his favorite surface. Juan Ignacio Chela is more of a clay court player, were he had his best results, winning the Dusseldorf ATP tournament this year and also featuring a quarterfinal appearance at the French Open, where he lost to Andy Murray.
I think this will be at least a difficult game for Chela, and I am considering betting against him as good value.

Prediction: Marinko Matosevic to win @2.50 (3/5) - bet365

Radek Stepanek vs John Isner

ATP Cincinnati, Round 1.
Radek Stepanek(#29) and John Isner(#27) are two players with very similar records and trends in 2011. The year to date record shows overall 23W/ 17L in ATP main events for both players, while on hard court, Radek Stepanek features 18W/ 6L while John Isner has 18W/ 8L. Isner has the advantage of his height and monster serve that brought him not less than 549 aces this season, while Stepanek only served 136 aces. Where the american suffers is the return record and this can be easily seen from his numerous sets ending in tie-breaks. The head to head record is 1 to 1, last victory belonging to Isner in 5 sets at the Australian Open in 2011. The bookmakers give Isner as the favorite and I tend to disagree. He certainly has the option of winning, however, looking at their past matches, I cannot but observe that Radek Stepanek has beaten players like Gael Monfils (#8) which Isner did
not manage to. I believe Radek Stepanek is good value, even though my personal favorite this year is still John Isner.

Prediction: Radek Stepanek to win @2.25 (3/5) - Paddy Power.

Marcos Baghdatis vs James Blake

Marcos Baghdatis (#40) is not at the best point in his career. Starting the year with high hopes and the desire to reach back into the top 10, following his retirement from the Australian Open his performance dropped considerably, Baghdatis having a negative record on hard court this year, and this is the surface where he used to excel. I point you to read this emotional article which summarizes his road to the top 10 and his sacrifices: http://www.atpworldtour.com/News/DEUCE-Tennis/DEUCE-Australian-Open-2011/Marcos-Baghdatis.aspx.
As I've said before, his goal was to reach top 10 again this year. And that did not happen, it even became worse. In my view, he has the ability to truly come back, however, he must do that one match at a time.
And in Cincinnati first round, he faces James Blake(#86). James Blake has an overall 16 W/ 7 L record in 2011 on hard court, most recently reaching 3rd round in Washington, where he lost to John Isner in 3 sets.
The head to head statistic against Marcos Baghdatis is in favor of the Cypriot whom leads 2 to 0.
I think it is about time for Baghdatis to finally come back. He is certainly capable of doing so, and I incline for his victory today.

Prediction: Marcos Baghdatis to win @2.10 (3/5) - Paddy Power

Montreal Semifinals

After lousy results with the previous round of predictions, I have decided to stay away for a few days, relaxing and enjoying good quality tennis. Montreal has been surprising if you look at the game between Ivan Dodig and Rafael Nadal. Montreal has also confirmed so far that Novak Djokovic is truly worth of being no. 1. Nole, in my view and probably many others, is the most likely to win here in Montreal. He will have to beat Tsonga for that to happen and I think it is not going to be a facile victory. Given that the French is in very good form this season, I expect at least a close match and I will go for the over 20.5 games bet. I am also considering Tsonga +4.5 handicap.

Prediction: Novak Djokovic vs Jo-Wilfried Tsonga over 20.5 games @1.66 (3/5) - bet365.

However, the first semifinal is the one between world #8, Mardy Fish and #24 Janko Tipsarevic.
Fish has had an execellent summer so far, reaching finals in Atlanta, where he won against Isner, and Los Angeles (l. to Gulbis).
Tipsarevic managed to link 4 consecutive victories that got him to the semis, beating Alejandro Falla (#109), Fernando Verdasco (#20), Ivan Dodig(#41) and Tomas Berdych(#9).
Boths players records on hard court are similar, with 19W/ 6L for Fish and 18W/7L for Tipsarevic. The Serbian is looking for his first career title and this should be an extra motivation for him tonight. His negative record 3 loses and 1 victory against Fish does not make him the favorite, however, I believe that if he is playing is game, Fish can be beaten.

Prediction: Janko Tipsarevic to win @2.38 (2/5) - StanJames

ATP Montreal, Round 1

1. Feliciano Lopez(#25) vs Radek Stepanek(#27)

The recent, and to some, unexpected champion of Legg Mason Classic, Radek Stepanek takes on Feliciano Lopez of Spain. Both players are in their thirty's and have met 8 times, Stepanek Leading 7 to 1.
Their year to date record shows : 23W/16L Stepanek, 20W/ 18L Lopez, and hard court statistics show: 11W/5L Stepanek and 5W/7L Lopez.
I think Stepanek showed a great form, "even at this age" as he himself said after winning the title and there is a possibility of him being tired after going all the way last week.
Lopez on the other hand had his last game, lost to Robin Haase in Kitzbuhel, on 4th of August, giving him time to recover. I will still go with Stepanek and if he passes on to the next rounds, the factor of tiredness will prevail in taking future decisions, but I believe that under the impression of the moment, coming from just winning a title, will boost him enough to put a good fight against the Spaniard.

Prediction: Radek Stepanek to win @2.00 (3/5) - Paddy Power. .

(Feliciano Lopez)

Other predictions:

2. Ivo Karlovic(#125) vs Juan Monaco(#39)

Juan Monaco to win @2.12 (2/5) - Betfair.

3. Ernests Gulbis(#55) vs Juan Carlos Ferrero(#104)

Juan Carlos Ferrero to win @2.75 (2/5) - Paddy Power.

4. Bernard Tomic (#68) vs Yen-Hsun Lu (#66)

Bernard Tomic to win @1.62 (3/5) - Ladbrokers.

5. Marcos Baghdatis(#40) vs John Isner (#28)

John Isner to win @1.57 (3/5) - Boylesports.

6. Richard Gasquet(#13) vs Florian Mayer(#23)

Florian Mayer to win @3.00 (2/5) - StanJames.

7. Michael LLodra(#33) vs Mikhail Youzhny (#14)

Mikhail Youzhny to win @1.48 (3/4) - Betfair.

ATP Washington Quarterfinals

Fantastic round 3 on the blog with all picks turning out to be correct.
Today I am taking two more picks from the quarter finals, again lack of time makes me be brief on the blog, but reading the head to head record and motivation of the opponents, I do believe at least one of my picks will turn out.

1. Viktor Troicki vs John Isner

Prediction: John Isner to win @2.16 (2/5) - Betfair.

2. Gael Monfils vs Janko Tipsarevic

Prediction: Janko Tipsarevic to win@2.67 (2/5) - Betfair.

ATP Washington, Round 3

We still have some games in progess from Round 2 due to the rain delay, and today I have settled on a few more picks which I don't have time to elaborate upon, but I have hope they will be profitable.

1. Jarkko Nieminen(#51) vs Radek Stepanek (#54)

Prediction: Radek Stepanek to win @1.61 (3/5) - Betfair.

2. Fernando Verdasco (#19) vs Nikolay Davydenko(#30)

Prediction: Fernando Verdasco to win @1.67 (2/5) - Coral.

3. John Isner(#35) vs James Blake (#90)

Prediction: Over 22.5 games @1.80 (3/5) - Bet365.
Alternate: John Isner to win @1.60 (3/5) - Betfair.

ATP Washington, Round 2

The action continues in Washington with Round 2 taking off tonight. Yesterday's picks turned out nicely, with a single pick lost and a returned stake. I have updated the results table which can be seen on the Results page.

1. Matthew Ebden(#140) vs Nikolay Davydenko(#30).

I am very tempted to bet on Ebden in this game... Davydenko is has a losing streak recently, and he has proven that by losing to Cedrik-Marcel Stebe (#148) two times in a row. His form lately has nothing to do with the Davydenko of the beginning of the year, when he has beaten top players, including Nadal on hard court, one of his favorite surfaces. On the other hand, for Matthew Ebden, hard court is almost the only surface he has played this year, with a 24W/13L record, compared to Davydenko's 7W/7L, but of course the difference is the quality of opponets that both players have faced.
I am not sure when Nikolay Davydenko's streak will end, but I will lay him in this game and see where this all goes.

Prediction: Matthew Ebden to win @2.90 (2/5) - Betfair

(Nikolay Davydenko, Credit: Photograph: Jacques Demarthon/AFP/Getty Images)

2. Marcos Baghdatis(#26) vs Somdev Devvarman(#65)

Somdev Devvarman has been playing a lot of hard court games this year, having a 16W/9L record,
whereas Baghdatis has a 4W/6L record, with the last 5 games on this surface lost. Their head to
head statistic is 1 to 1, with their first game in 2009, when Baghdatis won in 3 sets, and their
last encounter at Indian Wells this year, where Devvarman won 7-5, 6-0.

Prediction: Somdev Devvarman to win @2.38 (2/5) - Stan James

3. Radek Stepanek vs Wayne Odesnik

Prediction: Radek Stepanek to win @1.36 (4/5) - Paddy Power

4. Tommy Haas vs Thomaz Belluci

Prediction: Thomaz Belluci to win @1.49 (3/5) - Betfair

5. Gael Monfils vs Ryan Sweeting

Prediction: Ryan Sweeting to win @3.40 (2/5) - Ladbrokers

6. Michael Llodra vs Grigor Dimitrov

Prediction: Grigor Dimitrov to win @2.38 (2/5) - Stan James

ATP Washington, Round 1 Continued

Round 1 continues today in Washington with a few more interesting games.

1. Ryan SWeeting(#66) vs Alex Bogomolov(#56)
This will be a close match and even the odds are very close.
The two players have a head to head statistic of 2-2, none of their
games taking place in a ATP World Tour main draw. Their last game ended
with the victory of Ryan Sweeting, on hard court. Ryan Sweeting's record
on hard court this year is 19W/8L, while Bogomolov's is of 11/7, giving a
better percentage for Sweeting. I believe this game will be a close call,
and in such situation I prefer to go with the underdog.

Prediction: Ryan Sweeting to win @2.10 (2/5) - Stan James.

2. Marsel Ilhan(#107) vs Flavio Cipolla(#103)
Two players knocking on the top 100 doors that have never met before.
Marsel Ilhan did not have too many games on hard court this year and
has a negative record 5W/7L, while Flavio Cipolla had more success,
even thought it was in Challenger tournaments, having a 21W/8L record
this year. This is again a close call to make and in my view this might as well be a 3 set match. For the victory, I prefer going with Cipolla whom has had a better presence on hard court and I believe the accumlated experience so far will help him get to the next round.

Prediction: Flavio Cipolla to win @2.00 (2/5) - Stan James.

Here are some more predictions for today:

3. Ryan Harrison to win 2-0 @1.57 (3/5) - Coral.
4. Fernando Gonzalez to win @1.53 (3/5) - Ladbrokers.
5. Grigor Dimitrov to win @1.58 (3/5) - AllYoubet.
6. Somdev Devvarman to win @1.30 (3/5) - Coral.

ATP Washington, Round 1

Round 1 of Legg Mason classic begins today. Singles draws are set and can be seen here.
More information about this tournament can be found on their website.
The odds for the predictions have been taken from www.valuchecker.co.uk which provides odds comparison to get the best value out of our bets.

1. Gilles Muller(#68) vs Igor Kunitsyn(#58).
Statistically speaking, Muller has the better serve, with 77% points won
on the first serve, compared to Kunitsyn's 67%. On the other hand, the
return records show better percentages for Kunitsyn. On hard court,
in all tournaments this year, including challengers, Kunitsyn has a 20W/9L
record, with the most noteworthy result being the victory against Ryan Sweeting (#66)in two sets that ended with a tie break.
Gilles Muller has a 14W/5L record on hard court in 2011, taking down higher ranked players such as Alex Bogomolov(#56) or Kevin Anderson(#37). His defeats were against top players: Robin Soderling, Mardy Fish and even John Isner.

Prediction: Gilles Muller to win @1.57 (4/5) - bet365.

2. Radek Stepanek(#54) vs Philipp Petzschner(#79)

These players have not met before and both have quite similar hard court perfomances this year, with Stepanek having a 5W/5L record while Petzschner has a 6W/6L record. Based on their results this year, this game announces to be a tough one and I believe the actual odds are much closer. Stepanek is capable of handling top players as he demonstrated this year, but Petzscher's performance should not be neglected, he is younger and his service and return records are at least close to the ones of Stepanek.
Many fancy Stepanek and I believe he is a good choice as well, however, I think that Petzschner can win this game and it would be of better value to get the bigger odds.

Prediction: Phillip Petzscher to win @2.22 (2/5) - betfair.

3. Alejandro Falla (#96) vs Chris Guccione(#224).

In this game, bookmakers give the Colombian Alejandro Falla as favorite, however, I think there is more than meets the eye with this game. The head to head statistics favor the Australian, Guccione leading 2 to 1, with the last victory this year, in three sets in Sidney. Falla has a 13W/10L record on hard court (including challengers), while Guccione has been playing more games on this surface having a 16W/10L record.
In my view, the victory of Chris Guccione is definitely an option.

Prediction: Chris Guccione to win @2.12 (2/5) - betfair.