Monte Carlo finals

This betting tip comes from the Monte Carlo finals, between Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal. Djokovic survived yet another tough challenge from Tomas Berdych yesterday, after losing first set, but eventually putting himself together to get through to the finals in three sets. He did not look in his best shape, specially in the first part of the match, given the windy conditions.

Nadal on the other hand beat an in-form Simon in a much more spectacular match, in two sets, 6-3 6-4, no surprise from the man holding seven consecutive titles here in Monte Carlo. On clay, Nadal leads Djokovic 8-2, with only the last two meetings won by the serb. Todays prediction is not in the category of banker bets. I am choosing it because this is one of those matches were history is being made. Nadal has the chance to win his 8th title here. While at such high level an outcome is hard to predict, I fancy Nadal as the clay master and more composed in his game this week than Djokovic.

Prediction: Rafael Nadal vs Novak Djokovic: Rafael Nadal -1.5 @1.83 - bet365

ATP Delray Beach finals

This betting tip comes from ATP Delray Beach ATP tournament and the match between Kevin Aderson (#36) and Marinko Matosevic (#173). 
Marinko Matosevic takes on his first ATP tour level final after coming from the qualifying round taking out opponents such as Ivo Karlovic, Alex Bogomolov Jr., Ernests Gulbis and Dudi Sela.
Kevin Anderson in turn eliminated Austin Krajcek, Xavier Malisse, Andy Roddick and top seed John Isner whom he also topped on the number of aces serverd during the match.
The two players only met once, in Baton Rouge Chanllenger, back in 2010, when Matosevic retired at 2-6, 7-5, 6-6. Matosevic's last three games on this tournament ended up in three sets and after the last game against Dudi Sela (5-7, 6-4, 7-6 (6)),  he stated that he's feeling tired and had been fighting cramps, however his capacity to recover and fight might be very well on his side during today's final.
The statistics and conditions favor Anderson in this match and he is my choice for winning the final.

Prediction: Kevin Anderson to beat Marinko Matosevic @ 1.22 - bet365.

ATP Memphis, Round 2

This pick comes from ATP Memphis, Round 2. The banker bet of the day is:

John Isner (13) to beat Donald Young (41) @ 1.17 - Stan James.

Isner has been in very good form and he's also very good on hard courts. He probably got a boost in moral after beating world no 3, Roger Federer in the Davis Cup, even though we haven't seen the best of Federer in that match. John Isner's record agains Donald Young is positive, 2 - 0, with their last game dating back in 2009, where they met in the finals in Tallahassee, USA. Being the top seed in this tournament for the second time in his career, after Newport in 2011, which he won, backing Isner in the early rounds is a good strategy.

For more statistics and match previews, see also the home site of the ATP World Tour, with the Thursday briefing.

Banker bets

I thought I'd try something new and have a period of time a closer look at the so called "banker bets", backing big favorites to win. It is probably a strategy that does not bring spectacular returns, but if the events are chosen well, it can provide consistency and winning constantly is good. So here goes:

 ATP Buenos Aires

Nicolas Almagro (11) to beat Federico Del Bonis (150) @ 1.25 - bet365.

ATP Marseille

Mardy Fish (8) to beat Albano Olivetti (388) @ 1.17 - Ladbrokers.

Good luck!

Albert Montanes to Win

Vacation has been longer this year. This week's offer was not very tempting, but for the sake of it, I have ended up betting on the match between Albert Montanes(#50) and Rui Machado (#80).
Albert Montanes' record on clay in 2011 is 20 W/ 13L, while Rui Machado has a record of 33W/19L. The major difference though is the competitions they have been playing. Montanes was more present in ATP level tours, and in his last participation in Kitzbuhel he reached the finals beating higher ranked players (Kohlschreiber, Giraldo, Chela).
Rui Machado has been focusing on Challenger level tournaments, with his best performance being the win at the Marrakech Challenger against Maxime Teixeira (#158).
Prediction: Albert Montanes to win @1.44 (4/5) - bet365.

US Open, Round 1

US Open is finally here with lots of adrenalin and games we can bet on. For today I have settled on an interesting game that I think that has the potential to become a winner.

Marinko Matosevic (#148) vs Juan Ignacio Chela (#24).
Juan Ignacio Chela has had a poor performance this year on hard courts, winning only 2 of the 8 games played. He's coming from two consecutive loses in R64 phases: Montreal (lost to Vasek Pospisil - #143) and Cincinnati (lost to Ryan Harrison -#66). On the other hand, Matosevic has a record of 17W/13L in 2011 on hard courts, which is also his favorite surface. Juan Ignacio Chela is more of a clay court player, were he had his best results, winning the Dusseldorf ATP tournament this year and also featuring a quarterfinal appearance at the French Open, where he lost to Andy Murray.
I think this will be at least a difficult game for Chela, and I am considering betting against him as good value.

Prediction: Marinko Matosevic to win @2.50 (3/5) - bet365

Radek Stepanek vs John Isner

ATP Cincinnati, Round 1.
Radek Stepanek(#29) and John Isner(#27) are two players with very similar records and trends in 2011. The year to date record shows overall 23W/ 17L in ATP main events for both players, while on hard court, Radek Stepanek features 18W/ 6L while John Isner has 18W/ 8L. Isner has the advantage of his height and monster serve that brought him not less than 549 aces this season, while Stepanek only served 136 aces. Where the american suffers is the return record and this can be easily seen from his numerous sets ending in tie-breaks. The head to head record is 1 to 1, last victory belonging to Isner in 5 sets at the Australian Open in 2011. The bookmakers give Isner as the favorite and I tend to disagree. He certainly has the option of winning, however, looking at their past matches, I cannot but observe that Radek Stepanek has beaten players like Gael Monfils (#8) which Isner did
not manage to. I believe Radek Stepanek is good value, even though my personal favorite this year is still John Isner.

Prediction: Radek Stepanek to win @2.25 (3/5) - Paddy Power.